11-05-2025
Five biggest threats to Rory McIlroy winning the US PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler after winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025 in Texas on May 4th. Photograph:He's back, if he ever truly went away. Scheffler's wait for a first win of the season came in rather spectacular style at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson where he had 12 shots to spare over Erik Van Rooyen in shooting a 31-under-par total of 253, which equalled the low 72-holes total on the PGA Tour. Scheffler had a slow start to the year after suffering a hand injury over the Christmas period but the world number one has fully recovered and will be McIlroy's main challenger.
Odds:
9/2
Joaquin Niemann
The Chilean has been the standout player on the LIV Golf circuit this season with three wins (in Adelaide, Singapore and Mexico). Niemann's two career wins on the PGA Tour (the Greenbrier in 2019 and the Genesis in 2022) came before his move to LIV. His form in the majors – no top-10s in 23 appearances (with a best finish of tied-16th in the 2023 Masters) – is at odds with his undoubted talent. His form suggests he is ready to finally contend.
Odds:
28/1
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Justin Rose
Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy shake hands after the first playoff hole during the final round of the 2025 Masters in Augusta, Georgia on April 13th. Photograph:Ageing like a fine wine, the Englishman – with one career Major title, the US Open back in 2013 – has contended strongly in each of the last two Majors: he was runner-up to Xander Schauffele in last year's Open at Troon and lost out to Rory McIlroy in a playoff at the Masters. Started the year ranked 55th in the world and has moved up to 14th on the back of good form.
Odds:
55/1
Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa. Photograph: Emilee Chinn/Getty
The two-time Major champion – US PGA in 2020 and The Open in 2021 – hasn't won since the Tour Championship on the PGA Tour since the Zozo Championship at the tailend of 2023 but has posted two runner-up finishes so far this season. He has recently changed caddie to tour veteran Joe Greiner.
Odds:
20/1
Justin Thomas
Two-time PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas. Photograph: Zac Goodwin/PA Wire
Back to the scene of his great win in the 2017 US PGA Championship, Thomas has hit a rich vein of form. He hasn't missed a cut all year and his impressive win in the RBC Heritage gave him his fifth top-10 finish in 10 tournaments this season.
Odds:
20/1
